Solved: Ad scaling after 3 sales led to ad fatigue

Hi there,

Thanks for reaching out!

It’s a really common situation you've described. A lot of courses and 'gurus' push these simple rules that sound great on paper but fall apart in the real world. That "3 sales then scale" idea is one of the biggest culprits I see for people burning through their ad budget with nothing to show for it. Happy to give you some initial thoughts on why that approach doesn't work and what you should be doing instead. Tbh, what you've experienced is completely normal, but it's a sign your underlying strategy needs a rethink.

Let's get this sorted.

We'll need to look at why that course advice was a disaster waiting to happen...

Alright, let's be brutally honest. That advice you got was terrible. It's the kind of oversimplified nonsense that sounds smart but completely ignores how ad platforms like Meta actually work. Thinking you can scale an ad set just because it got three sales is like deciding to run a marathon because you managed to walk to the end of your street without getting out of breath. It's a false signal.

Here’s the reality: three sales is just noise. It's not data. It could be pure luck. Maybe three people who were already about to buy your product just happened to see your ad on the same day. It doesn't mean you've found a magic formula. The algorithm needs far more data than that to reliably find more people like them.

What you experienced is a classic case of micro-saturation or ad fatigue. At a tiny budget like $10 a day, the platform shows your ad to a very small, specific slice of your target audience—the people it thinks are the *most* likely to convert right now (the lowest hanging fruit). Once that small pocket of people has either bought or decided they're not interested, the algorithm has to find the *next* most likely group. These people are slightly harder to convince, so your costs go up and sales dry up. When you tried to scale by increasing the budget, you were just forcing the platform to spend more money on these less-interested people, which is why performance tanked.

Relying on a rule like "3 sales" means you're making major budget decisions based on statistical anomalies. Real, sustainable scaling is a process of systematic testing and validation, not a lottery ticket. You've got to build a machine, not just hope you get lucky again. It's a common mistake, so don't feel bad, but it's important to realise why its flawed so you can stop doing it.

I'd say you need a proper scaling framework, not a magic number...

So if the '3 sales' rule is out, what do you replace it with? You need to replace a flimsy rule with a robust system. In paid ads, we talk about two types of scaling: vertical and horizontal. The course you took only taught you about one, and it's the one you should almost always do last.

• Vertical Scaling: This is what you tried to do. You take an ad set that seems to be working and you just increase the budget. It's simple, easy, and usually the fastest way to wreck a good ad set.
• Horizontal Scaling: This is where the real work is done. Instead of giving more money to one ad set, you create *more* ad sets to find other pockets of customers. You scale by testing new audiences, new creatives, and new angles.

Your number one job isn't to pour fuel on a small fire; it's to find other places where you can start more fires. Only when you have multiple, consistently performing ad sets do you start to cautiously give them more budget (vertical scaling). How do you know when an ad set is a *proven* winner? It needs to have spent at least 3 to 5 times your target Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) while remaining profitable. So, if your target CPA is £20, an ad set isn't 'proven' until it has spent £60-£100 and is still hitting your goal. Any decisions before that point are premature.

This process of validating and then deciding what to do next can be confusing, so here’s a simple flowchart that maps out the logic I use. It's not about magic numbers; it's about a disciplined process.

You probably should structure your account like a proper funnel...

Running just one ad set and hoping for the best is another common mistake. A robust advertising strategy doesn't treat all customers the same. Some people have never heard of you, some are considering your product, and others are on the verge of buying. You need to talk to each of them differently. This is done by structuring your campaigns into a funnel.

ToFu (Top of Funnel): Prospecting. This is your cold audience. People who don't know you exist. The goal here is to find new potential customers and introduce them to your brand. Your $10/day ad was a ToFu ad.

MoFu (Middle of Funnel): Re-engagement. This is your warm audience. People who have shown some interest—they've visited your website, watched one of your videos, or engaged with your social media page. The goal here is to build trust and remind them of your solution.

BoFu (Bottom of Funnel): Retargeting. This is your hot audience. People who have shown strong buying intent—they've added a product to their cart or started the checkout process but didn't finish. The goal is to get them over the finish line.

By splitting your campaigns this way, you can tailor your message and your offer to the right person at the right time. You serve different ads to your BoFu audience (maybe with a discount or a testimonial) than you do to your ToFu audience (who might just get an introduction to the problem you solve). This structure is more stable, scalable, and profitable in the long run.

Here’s a breakdown of the audiences I'd prioritise testing within this structure. The closer an audience is to the final conversion, the better it (or a lookalike of it) will typically perform.

For a new account, you'd start by testing a few different ToFu audiences using detailed targeting (interests). For example, if you sell high-end coffee beans, you wouldn't just target 'coffee'. That's too broad. You'd target interests like 'James Hoffmann', 'specialty coffee', followers of specific roaster pages, or people interested in 'Chemex' or 'V60'. You're looking for interests that are specific to your ideal customer. Once you get enough data (at least 100 purchases, ideally more), you can create lookalike audiences, which is where the real power of the algorithm kicks in. Then, you build out your MoFu and BoFu campaigns to capture the interest you've generated.

You'll need to know your numbers, really know them...

This is probably the most important shift in mindset you can make. The goal of advertising isn't to get the cheapest possible sale. The goal is to profitably acquire customers who will be valuable to your business over the long term. To do that, you need to stop focusing only on the immediate Cost Per Sale and start understanding your Customer Lifetime Value (LTV).

LTV tells you how much profit a typical customer will generate for you over their entire relationship with your business. Once you know this number, you know how much you can afford to spend to acquire a customer (your Customer Acquisition Cost, or CAC) and still be very profitable. A healthy business typically aims for an LTV:CAC ratio of at least 3:1. This means for every £1 you spend acquiring a customer, you get £3 back in gross profit over their lifetime.

Knowing this frees you from the tyranny of cheap leads. Suddenly, a £50 cost per sale might look like an incredible bargain if you know that customer is actually worth £500 to you. It's the math that unlocks agressive, intelligent growth.

Here’s a simple calculator to help you work out your LTV. Play around with the numbers to see how small changes in churn or average revenue can have a huge impact on what you can afford to spend on ads.

I've detailed my main recommendations for you below:

Okay, that was a lot of information. The key takeaway is to move from simple rules and guesswork to a proper system. Advertising isn't a slot machine; it's an engine you build piece by piece. Here’s a summary of the actionable steps you should take to get your ads back on track and build a foundation for real, sustainable scale.

This might seem like a lot more work than just pressing the 'scale' button after a few sales, and it is. But this is the difference between gambling and investing. This process builds a predictable, reliable customer acquisition machine for your business.

Managing all these moving parts—the audience research, creative development, testing structure, data analysis, and scaling protocol—is a full-time job. It's where deep expertise can make a massive difference, helping you get to profitability faster and avoid costly mistakes. This is what we do all day, every day for our clients, taking this entire complex process off their plate so they can focus on running their business.

If you'd like to walk through your specific situation and see how a system like this could be applied to your business, we offer a free, no-obligation initial consultation. We can review your account together and give you a clear roadmap. It's usually super helpful for potential clients.

Regards,

Team @ Lukas Holschuh