Solved: Facebook Ads Manager Shows 0 Estimated Conversions

Hi there,

Thanks for getting in touch about the issues you're having with your Facebook ads. It's a really common problem, especially for new accounts, so don't worry you're not alone in this.

That '0 estimated conversions' message can be proper demoralising, especially when you're keen to get sales for your board game store. The good news is that it's almost certainly not a case of your budget being too small or some unfixable bug. It's usually down to a lack of data, and that's something we can definitely fix. I'll walk you through my thoughts on what's likely happening and give you a clear plan to get things moving. It's less about flipping a magic switch and more about building a solid foundation for the Facebook algorithm to work with.

Let's talk about that '0 Estimated Conversions' warning...

First off, let's get this out of the way. That message is Facebook's way of saying, "I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen." Think of the Meta algorithm as a new employee you've just hired. If on their first day, with no knowledge of your business or your customers, you asked them to predict next month's sales, they'd just stare at you blankly. That's exactly what's happening here.

Because your ad account and pixel are new (I'm assuming), they haven't seen who buys from you. They don't know the demographic, interests, or online behaviours of a typical customer for your board game store. So when you tell it to get 'Purchases', it looks at its data banks, finds nothing, and shows you a zero. Even if you tell it you have £100,000 to spend, it still has no historical data to base an estimate on. It's a data issue, not a spending one.

Now, it is worth doing a quick check to make sure your pixel is actually installed correctly with Shopify. You can use the 'Meta Pixel Helper' Chrome extension to check this. When you go through your store's checkout process, you should see the pixel firing for 'View Content' on product pages, 'Add to Cart', 'Initiate Checkout', and finally 'Purchase' on the thank you page. If that's all working, then we can safely ignore the estimate and focus on the real task: feeding the algorithm the data it needs to get smart.

The real problem isn't the estimate, it's the data vacuum...

The success of your entire advertising effort hinges on the quality of data your Meta Pixel collects. Every visitor action is a signal that teaches the algorithm about your customers. Without these signals, you're just throwing money into the wind and hoping for the best. The goal is to "season" the pixel, to give it enough flavour of what a real customer looks like that it can go out and find more of them for you.

A typical customer journey on your Shopify store might look something like this, and at each step, we need to ensure a pixel event is firing and sending that signal back to Meta. This is the foundation of everything.

Each of these events, from ViewContent to Purchase, creates a custom audience you can use later. More importantly, it teaches the algorithm. When you get enough 'Purchase' events, Meta can build a detailed profile of your buyers and its estimates will become scarily accurate. But you can't get there from a standing start.

So, how do you get that data? Stop trying to get purchases immediately...

Here's the bit of advice that might feel a bit backwards, but it's the most reliable way to build a profitable ad account from scratch. Do not optimise your first campaign for Purchases.

It's too big of an ask. You're asking the algorithm to find the rarest and most valuable action (a sale) with zero information. It's like trying to find a needle in a haystack, in the dark. Instead, you need to work your way up the value ladder. Start by asking for something easier and more common.

My advice would be to set up your first campaign with the objective of 'Conversions', but select 'View Content' as the specific conversion event you want to optimise for. The goal here isn't to get sales directly, but to drive a high volume of relevant traffic to your product pages for a low cost. This achieves two things:

1. It seasons the pixel quickly. You'll get hundreds of 'View Content' events far faster and cheaper than you'll get 'Purchase' events. This gives the algorithm the raw data it needs to start learning.
2. It builds your retargeting audiences. All those people visiting your product pages can be put into an audience to show different ads to later on.

Run this campaign until you're getting at least 50-100 'View Content' events per week. After that, you can try moving up the ladder. You could either switch the optimisation to 'Add to Cart' or, if you're feeling confident and have a good number of events, go straight for 'Purchase'. By then, the algorithm will have some data to work with, that '0 estimate' will disappear, and you'll be in a much stronger position.

We'll need to look at your campaign structure...

A messy campaign structure is another way to burn through cash. Simply having one campaign targeting everyone isn't going to cut it. You need to speak to people differently depending on how familiar they are with your store. We use a simple ToFu/MoFu/BoFu (Top/Middle/Bottom of Funnel) structure for our eCommerce clients, and it works wonders. For a small budget, you can combine MoFu and BoFu to start.

• ToFu (Top of Funnel - Cold Traffic): This campaign targets people who have never heard of you before. The goal is introduction and to drive initial website visits.
  -> Audiences: This is where you use detailed interest targeting. For a board game store, you have a wealth of options. Forget broad interests like "board games" or "shopping". Get specific. Target interests like "Settlers of Catan," "Dungeons & Dragons," "Ticket to Ride." Target followers of publishers like "Asmodee" or "Stonemaier Games." Target people interested in "BoardGameGeek" or famous YouTube reviewers. Group these into themed ad sets. For example, one ad set for 'heavy strategy games', another for 'family party games'.


• MoFu (Middle of Funnel - Warm Traffic): This campaign is for retargeting people who have shown some interest but haven't taken a high-intent action.
  -> Audiences: People who have visited your website in the last 30 days (but not added to cart), people who have watched 50% of your video ads, people who have engaged with your Facebook or Instagram page. The ad copy here can be different, maybe highlighting a specific category of games or showing customer reviews.


• BoFu (Bottom of Funnel - Hot Traffic): This is your money-maker. These are people who are very close to buying.
  -> Audiences: People who have Added to Cart or Initiated Checkout in the last 7-14 days but didn't complete the purchase. These ads should be direct, maybe with a small discount code or a reminder about what they left behind to create urgency. I remember one campaign for an eCommerce client selling maps where we generated an 8x return—a huge part of that success was getting this BoFu retargeting spot on.

By separating your campaigns like this, you can control your budget and messaging far more effectively. You can allocate more spend to what's working and deliver ads that are much more relevant to the user's stage in their buying journey.

You probably should calculate what you can afford to spend...

Before you get too deep into optimising ads, it's vital to know your numbers. The most important question isn't "how low can my cost per purchase be?" but rather "how high can my cost per purchase be while I'm still profitable?" The answer comes from understanding your Customer Lifetime Value (LTV).

For an eCommerce store, it's a bit simpler than for a SaaS business. You need to know your Average Order Value (AOV), your gross margin, and roughly how many times a customer buys from you per year. Let's run through a hypothetical example for a board game store.

• Average Order Value (AOV): £45
• Gross Margin (after cost of goods): 50%
• Purchases Per Year Per Customer: 1.5

Your one-year customer value would be (AOV * Gross Margin) * Purchases Per Year = (£45 * 0.50) * 1.5 = £33.75. A common rule of thumb is to aim for a 3:1 LTV to Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) ratio. This means you could afford to spend up to £11.25 to acquire a new customer and still have a healthy, profitable business. This number gives you a North Star. If your campaigns are bringing in customers for £8, you're doing great. If it's costing you £20, you know you need to optimise your ads or your website conversion rate.

Here's a little calculator to play around with your own numbers. It'll help you understand the relationship between what you earn from a customer and what you can afford to spend to get them.

I've detailed my main recommendations for you below:

This is a lot to take in, I know. But getting these fundamentals right from the beginning will save you a huge amount of time, money, and frustration down the line. It's the difference between gambling and investing in your store's growth. Here is the main advice I have for you, broken down into a step-by-step plan.

This whole process can be a bit of a minefield and it's easy to make costly mistakes when you're just starting out. An expert can help you navigate this much faster, analysing the data correctly and making the right decisions on what audiences and creative to test next.

If you'd like to go through your setup and build out a more detailed strategy together, we offer a free, no-obligation initial consultation. We can have a look at your account and give you some specific feedback. Feel free to book a time that works for you if you think that would be helpful.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Team @ Lukas Holschuh