Hi there,
Thanks for reaching out! It sounds like you've hit a wall that a lot of advertisers run into, and it's incredibly frustrating when things go south without any obvious reason. I'm happy to give you some initial thoughts and guidance on what might be going on and how you can start to diagnose and fix it. This is a common problem, but the solution is rarely what people first think.
Honestly, blaming a platform outage is usually a red herring. While they do happen, they're rare and typically affect everyone at once, leading to widespread reports online. 99% of the time, a sudden drop in ROAS points to deeper issues within the campaign, the audience, or the offer itself. The good news is that these are all things you can control and improve.
TLDR;
- Sudden ROAS drops are almost never a platform outage; it's usually an issue with your ads, audience, or offer. Don't waste time waiting for Meta to 'fix' it.
- You need a systematic way to diagnose the problem. Start at the top of the funnel (CTR) and work your way down to the purchase (Conversion Rate) to find the exact drop-off point.
- Your ROAS is a lagging indicator. Focus on the metrics you can directly influence: your ad creative, your audience targeting, and the value of your offer. Improving these will fix your ROAS.
- Stop thinking about daily ROAS and start thinking about Lifetime Value (LTV). Knowing what a customer is truly worth allows you to spend more intelligently to acquire them, making you less vulnerable to daily auction swings.
- This letter includes a visual diagnostic flowchart to help you pinpoint campaign weaknesses and an interactive calculator to figure out your customer LTV and affordable acquisition costs.
It's not an outage, it's an auction
First things first, let's get this out of the way. It's almost certainly not a Meta outage. When performance drops, the first instinct is to look for an external cause. It’s comforting to think the platform is broken and it’ll fix itself. Tbh, that's a trap. It stops you from looking at what's really happening inside your own ad account.
What you're experiencing is the reality of an auction-based system. You're competing against thousands of other advertisers for the same eyeballs. Some days, a new competitor with a massive budget and a killer offer enters the auction for your audience. Some days, your audience is just less receptive because of a holiday, a news event, or just random chance. This creates volatility. Your ROAS was stable for a week, which is great, but a week is a very short amount of time in advertising. Real stability comes from a campaign structure and strategy that can weather these daily storms.
One client we worked with, a women's apparel brand, saw this all the time. Their ROAS would swing wildly day-to-day. But by building a proper funnel structure and focusing on longer-term metrics, we got them to a stable 691% return over several months. The daily fluctuations became just noise in a much more profitable, upward trend. That's the goal.
Typical ROAS Volatility Over 30 Days
We'll need to look at diagnosing the real problem
So, if it's not Meta's fault, what is it? You need to become a detective. You said you didn't change anything, but something changed. Either the audience's behaviour changed, the competitive landscape changed, or your ad simply ran its course. Your job is to follow the data trail to find the weak link in the chain.
You have to look at your entire funnel, from the first impression to the final sale. A drop in ROAS is the final symptom, but the disease could be anywhere.
Here’s the process I’d follow:
1. Check Ad-Level Metrics (The Hook): Start with the very top of the funnel. Look at your Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Cost Per Click (CPC). Has your CTR dropped significantly? Has your CPC shot up? If so, the problem is likely with your ad creative or the immediate audience you're targeting. This is often the first sign of ad fatigue, where your audience has seen the ad too many times and is now ignoring it. The message has gone stale.
2. Check Funnel Engagement Metrics (The Story): Okay, so people are still clicking. What happens next? Are they actually making it to your website? Look at your outbound CTR vs your landing page view rate. Is there a big drop-off? This could signal a slow-loading website or a disconnect between what your ad promises and what the landing page delivers (we call this 'ad scent'). Next, what percentage of landing page visitors view a product page? And what percentage of those add a product to their cart?
3. Check Conversion Metrics (The Close): If you're getting lots of 'Adds to Cart' but very few purchases, the problem lies at the very bottom of your funnel. This is where trust, pricing, shipping costs, and technical issues with your checkout process come into play. A confusing checkout or an unexpected £5 shipping fee can kill your conversion rate and, consequently, your ROAS.
By breaking it down like this, you stop looking at ROAS as one big, scary number and start seeing it as the output of a system you can analyse and improve. You're no longer helpless; you're problem-solving. This systematic approach is what separates amateurs from professionals.
The ROAS Diagnostic Flowchart
I'd say you need to shift your focus from ROAS to LTV
Here's a contrarian thought for you: obsessing over daily ROAS is a losing game. It makes you reactive and timid. You turn off campaigns too early and you're too scared to invest in acquiring new customers at the top of the funnel. The metric that truly matters, the one that lets you advertise with confidence, is Customer Lifetime Value (LTV).
The real question isn't "How low can my Cost Per Acquisition be?" but "How high a CPA can I afford to acquire a truly great customer?" Once you know what a customer is worth to you over their entire relationship with your brand, you can make much smarter decisions.
Let's do some simple maths. Say your average customer spends £50 per order and buys from you three times a year. Your gross margin is 60%. They typically stay a customer for two years.
LTV = (£50/order * 3 orders/year * 2 years) * 60% Gross Margin = £180
Suddenly, you know that each customer you acquire is worth £180 in gross profit. A healthy business model often aims for a 3:1 LTV to Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) ratio. This means you can afford to spend up to £60 to acquire that customer.
Now, when you have a day where your ROAS is 0.6 and your CPA is, say, £80, you're still losing money. But if the next day your ROAS is 4.0 and your CPA is £20, your average CPA is £50 – well within your profitable range. This perspective frees you from the tyranny of daily performance and allows you to build a sustainable growth engine. I remember one subscription box client who was terrified of their CPA rising above £10. We calculated their LTV was over £150. We increased their target CPA to £40, which unlocked a whole new level of scale and ultimately led to a 1000% return on their ad spend because they could finally outbid their timid competitors.
Interactive Customer Lifetime Value (LTV) Calculator
You probably should restructure your audiences
Okay, so let's assume you've diagnosed the problem and you're ready to fix it. More often than not, the issue starts with targeting. You said "traffic feels off", which is a massive clue. It suggests you might be reaching the wrong people, or the right people at the wrong time.
A common mistake is lumping all your audiences together or only using broad interest targeting. A robust Meta ads account should be structured like a proper sales funnel. I usually prioritise audiences based on how close they are to making a purchase. This ensures you're spending your money most efficiently.
Here’s a breakdown of how I’d structure it:
- Top of Funnel (ToFu - Cold Audiences): This is where you find new customers. You start with detailed targeting (interests, behaviours). The trick here is to be specific. If you sell high-end coffee beans, don't just target "Coffee". Target followers of specific roaster magazines, people interested in brands like 'Fellow' or 'La Marzocco', or lookalike audiences of your best customers. This is your prospecting campaign, and its job is to feed the rest of your funnel.
- Middle of Funnel (MoFu - Warm Audiences): These are people who've shown some interest but haven't bought yet. This includes website visitors, people who have watched 50% of your video ads, or engaged with your Instagram page. You retarget them with different ads, maybe showing customer testimonials or different product benefits. Their journey was interrupted; your job is to get it back on track.
- Bottom of Funnel (BoFu - Hot Audiences): This is your lowest-hanging fruit. People who have added a product to their cart, initiated checkout, but didn't complete the purchase. These people are on the verge of buying. You hit them with ads that overcome final objections – maybe a reminder, a small discount, or highlighting your free shipping policy. This is where you recover 'lost' sales.
By separating your campaigns this way, you can allocate your budget more intelligently and tailor your message to the user's level of awareness. You speak to strangers differently than you speak to acquaintances. Your advertising should do the same. If you're running everything in one ad set, Meta's algorithm might just spend all your money on cheap but low-quality ToFu traffic, crashing your ROAS.
You'll need a message they can't ignore
Even with perfect targeting, your ads will fail if your message is weak. People don't buy products; they buy better versions of themselves. Your ad's job isn't to list features, it's to sell a transformation. A drop in CTR is often the first sign that your message has stopped resonating.
A powerful framework for this, espacially in eCommerce, is the Before-After-Bridge.
- Before: Describe the customer's world without your product. What's their pain, their frustration? Agitate it a little.
- After: Paint a picture of their world with your product. What does this new reality look like? How do they feel?
- Bridge: Position your product as the simple, easy way to get from the 'Before' state to the 'After' state.
Let's say you sell a high-quality, non-stick frying pan. A bad ad says: "Our new pan has a triple-layer non-stick coating and an ergonomic handle. Buy now for £49.99." It’s boring, and it sounds like every other ad.
A Before-After-Bridge ad sounds like this:
(Before) "Tired of scraping burnt eggs out of your 'non-stick' pan every morning? Sick of your beautiful omelettes turning into a scrambled mess?"
(After) "Imagine perfectly golden pancakes sliding right onto the plate. Picture a flawless sunny-side-up egg, every single time. Effortless cooking, and even easier cleanup."
(Bridge) "Our [Brand Name] Pan is the bridge to your perfect breakfast. Get yours today and make every morning delicious."
See the difference? One sells a piece of metal, the other sells the feeling of being a great home cook. We've seen this approach dramatically lift CTRs for clients. For an eCommerce client selling cleaning products, we rewrote their ads to focus on the feeling of relief and pride in a sparkling clean home, not the chemical composition of the spray. The result was a 633% return and a 190% increase in revenue. Messaging matters.
I've detailed my main recommendations for you below:
| Recommendation | Actionable Step | Why It's Important |
|---|---|---|
| Stop Guessing, Start Diagnosing | Use the diagnostic flowchart. Go into your Meta Ads Manager and compare today's CTR, ATC rate, and Purchase CVR to last week's average. Find the exact drop-off point. | You can't fix a problem you haven't identified. This moves you from panic to a clear, data-driven action plan. |
| Shift Focus from ROAS to LTV | Use the interactive calculator above with your own numbers. Calculate your LTV and your affordable CAC. Set this as your new North Star metric. | This frees you from short-term volatility and allows you to invest in growth confidently, knowing you're acquiring customers profitably over the long term. |
| Restructure Your Campaigns | Create three separate campaigns: one for Prospecting (ToFu), one for Retargeting (MoFu), and one for Cart Abandoners (BoFu). Move your existing audiences into the right campaign. | This aligns your budget and messaging with the customer journey, improving efficiency and preventing wasteful spend on the wrong audiences. |
| Refresh Your Creative | Identify your worst-performing ad from the diagnosis step. Rewrite the copy using the Before-After-Bridge framework. Launch it as a new ad to test against your old creative. | Ad fatigue is a primary cause of performance decline. Continuously testing new messages is non-negotiable for sustained success. |
You'll get there, but it takes work
As you can probably tell, consistently getting a good ROAS isn't about finding a magic button or waiting for Meta to fix things. It's a process of constant analysis, testing, and optimisation. It involves understanding data, customer psychology, and the technical details of the ad platform. It's a full-time job, and it can be overwhelming to do it all yourself while also running a business.
Doing all of this correctly requires expertise and, just as importantly, time. Time to analyse the data, time to write new copy, time to build and manage campaigns, and time to stay on top of a platform that changes constantly. This is often where working with an agency or a consultant can make a huge difference.
We do this all day, every day. We've managed campaigns for dozens of eCommerce and software companies, from generating £107k at 618% ROAS for a prize draw company to helping an eCommerce store launch with 1500 leads at just $0.29 each. We bring that breadth of experience to every account we work on.
If you'd like to have a second pair of expert eyes on your ad account, we offer a completely free, no-obligation initial consultation. We can jump on a call, share screens, and walk through your campaigns together. At the very least, you'll walk away with a clear, actionable list of things you can do right now to improve performance.
Hope this helps!
Regards,
Team @ Lukas Holschuh
