Solved: Need help deciding if product is worth testing

Hi there,

Happy to give you some of my initial thoughts and a bit of guidance based on what you've described. It's a common situation to be in, trying to figure out if a product has legs before you sink a load of cash into it. Let's break it down.

So, is this product worth testing?...

First off, the fact that a main competitor has been running 53 active ads for 1.5 years is a massive green flag. You don't run that many ads for that long unless you're making good money. It's a strong indicator of product-market fit and profitability. They've done the hard work of proving there's a demand, which is good news for you.

But, the flip side is the new competition. 4-5 new websites popping up since Feb/March means the secret is out. The niche is likely getting more saturated, which means ad costs will probably creep up and it'll be harder to stand out. You can't just be another dropshipper selling the same thing with the same stock photos. You'll need a proper angle, a real brand, to have any chance.

The Google Trends score of 55-65 is decent. It shows consistent, stable interest. It's not a flash-in-the-pan viral product that'll die in a month, but it's not a massive, untapped goldmine either. It's a solid, steady niche. The wide pricing, from $39 to $79, is also interesting. It tells you there's flexibility. The main competitor selling at $79 suggests a premium positioning is possible, which is great for your potential margins. It's much easier to make a profit selling at $79 than at $39, provided you can justify the price.

You probably should focus on your angle and your store first...

This is where most dropshippers fall down. With all this competition, you absolutely cannot launch with a generic, untrustworthy-looking Shopify store. Before you even think about spending a dollar on ads, your website needs to be spot on. I've seen it a hundred times, people blame the ads when their website is the real problem.

A dodgy looking site will kill you're conversion rate, no matter how good the product is. Think about it from a customer's perspective. They click an ad, land on a site that's slow to load, has pixelated images, and looks a bit thrown together... they're not going to enter their credit card details. Its a common mistake.

So what do you need?

-> A Unique Angle: Why should someone buy from you instead of the other 5+ stores? Is it faster shipping? A better bundle deal? A unique brand story? You need to figure this out. Don't just copy the market leader. Find out what they're doing and do something different, something better.

-> Professional Storefront: This means clean design, fast loading times, and high-quality product photos and videos. If you can, get the product yourself and take custom content. It makes a world of difference. I recall one instance where we helped a luxury brand launch with high-quality video ads, and the campaign generated over 10 million views. A huge part of that success was due to the bespoke creative.

-> Trust Signals: These are non-negotiable. You need clear shipping policies, an easy-to-find contact page, customer reviews (even if you have to import them to start), and professional product descriptions that sell the benefits, not just the features.

Get this foundation right first. A strong website and offer can make average ads perform well, but even the best ads in the world can't save a bad website.

I'd say you need a proper testing strategy...

Alright, let's talk about testing ads on Meta. Your question about how much to spend is a good one. The answer is to start small and be methodical. Don't just throw hundreds of dollars at it and hope for the best.

Your main goal in the testing phase isn't to be profitable straight away. It's to gather data. You want to find out which audiences respond, which creatives get clicks, and what your initial cost per purchase looks like. I'd structure it based on a funnel approach.

For a new account, you'll be starting at the Top of the Funnel (ToFu), which means targeting cold audiences who've never heard of you. I'd prioritise your audiences like this:

1. Detailed Targeting (Interests/Behaviours): This is your starting point. You need to think carefully about your ideal customer. What magazines do they read? What brands do they like? What influencers do they follow? Don't just target "shopping" or "online shopping". That's too broad. If you're selling a kitchen gadget, you'd target interests like "Food Network", specific cooking blogs, or famous chefs. The key is to pick interests that are more likely to contain your target audience than not. I remember one campaign we ran for a client selling cleaning products where we targeted specific cleaning-related interests and achieved a 633% return on ad spend.

2. Lookalike Audiences: These are brilliant, but you can't use them straight away. You need data first. Once you get at least 100 purchases, you can create a Lookalike audience of your buyers. This is often where you find scale. You can also create Lookalikes of people who 'Add to Cart' or 'Initiate Checkout' as you gather that data.

3. Broad Targeting: This is where you let the Meta algorithm do the work, targeting people without specific interests. This can work incredibly well, but only once your pixel has thousands of conversion events. Don't start here.

For your initial tests, I would set up a campaign with 3-5 different ad sets. Each ad set would target a different group of related interests. In each ad set, have 2-3 different ads (creatives). This lets you test audiences and creatives at the same time.

You'll need to understand the numbers...

Once your tests are running, you need to know what to look for. Don't just look at sales. The early data tells a story about where your funnel is breaking.

-> Low CTR / High CPC? If no one is clicking your ads, then your creative (the image/video) or your copy isn't good enough. It's not grabbing peoples attention. Your targeting could also be wrong.

-> Lots of Clicks, but no 'Adds to Cart'? This points to a problem on your product page. Is the price too high? Are the pictures bad? Is the description unconvincing? Does the site look untrustworthy?

-> Lots of 'Adds to Cart', but no Purchases? This usually means there's a problem in your checkout process. Maybe your shipping costs are a surprise and too high, or your checkout is clunky and complicated.

You asked about what to expect. It varies wildly, but let's use the numbers from the examples. For an eCommerce store in a developed country like the US, a conversion rate of 2-5% is typical. A cost per click (CPC) might be around $0.50 - $1.50. So, a rough cost per purchase could be anywhere from $10 ($0.50 / 5%) to $75 ($1.50 / 2%). Your product selling for $39-$79 fits perfectly within this. If you can get a cost per purchase of around $20-$25 while selling at $79, you're in a great position.

This is the main advice I have for you:

As you can see, theres a fair bit to get right. It's not just about finding a product and running ads. It's about building a real brand, understanding your customer, and being methodical with your advertising. It’s about understanding your audience, optimising your targeting, creating compelling ads, and fine-tuning your landing page.

That's where a professional consultancy can make a huge difference. We've helped clients reduce their cost per lead significantly by implementing a proper structure like this. For example, we reduced the cost per lead by 84% for a client in the environmental controls industry by using a similar funnel structure and optimising their LinkedIn and Meta ad campaigns.

If you'd like to go through this in more detail and have a look at how we could help you launch this properly, feel free to book in a free consultation with us. We can review your plans together and give you a clearer path forward.

Regards,
Team @ Lukas Holschuh