Solved: Scaling Shopping tROAS Campaign Without Resetting

Hi there,

Thanks for reaching out! Happy to give you some initial thoughts on your Google Shopping tROAS campaign. It's a common situation to be in – you've gotten through the initial learning phase, you're seeing some promising but inconsistent results, and now you're wondering how to scale without breaking what's working. The lumpiness you're describing, with massive ROAS one day and just-about-breaking-even the next, is actually quite typical for these automated strategies, especially early on.

The key isn't to eliminate the volatility completely, which is almost impossible, but to manage it intelligently and scale in a way that encourages stability over the long run. Google's recommendation to jump straight to 660% is a bit aggressive and I can see why you're hesitant. My advice usually goes against these big, sudden changes. We need to build a more deliberate, incremental scaling plan that's based on your actual business goals, not just what the algorithm suggests in a pop-up. Let's get into how we can do that.

We'll need to look at your actual goal: Why 100% tROAS is a dangerous trap...

Before we even talk about scaling, we have to address the biggest issue I see in your setup: the 100% tROAS target. I know it seems logical, you're telling Google "for every £1 I spend, I want £1 back in revenue." It feels safe. But it's actually a trap that guarantees you're making no money from your ads, and you're likely even losing money.

Think about it. Revenue is not profit. That £1 in revenue you get back has costs associated with it. You have the cost of the product itself (Cost of Goods Sold - COGS), payment processing fees, shipping costs, your time for packing and handling, and other business overheads. When your ad campaign brings in £1 of revenue for £1 of ad spend, you still have to pay for all those other costs out of your own pocket. A 100% ROAS is a guaranteed loss-making machine once you factor in your margins.

This is probably the single most common mistake I see people make. They chase revenue numbers without understanding the underlying profitability. What we need to do first is calculate your Break-Even ROAS. This is the ROAS you need to achieve just to cover your product costs and ad spend, with zero profit left over. Anything below this number, and you're losing money on every single sale.

The formula is simple: Break-Even ROAS = 1 / Gross Profit Margin

Let's say you sell a product for £100. The cost to you (COGS) is £40. Your gross profit is £60, so your gross profit margin is 60% (£60 / £100).
Your Break-Even ROAS would be 1 / 0.60 = 1.67, or 167%.

This means you need to generate £1.67 in revenue for every £1 you spend on ads just to cover the product cost. At this point, you're still not making any actual profit to reinvest in the business, pay yourself, or grow. You're just treading water.

So, what should your target be? It should be your Profit ROAS. This is a target that builds in a healthy profit margin *after* all costs are accounted for. This figure is unique to your business and depends on your goals. A good starting point for many eCom businesses is to aim for a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio on their net profit, which often translates to a ROAS target of 400%-600% or more, depending on margins.

To make this tangible, I've put together a simple calculator for you below. Play around with the sliders to input your average product revenue and your costs. It'll show you exactly what your Break-Even ROAS is and help you understand what a healthy Profit ROAS target might look like.

You can see how quickly a 100% target falls apart. Once you know your real Profit ROAS, that 660% reccomendation from Google might not seem so crazy after all – in fact, it might be exactly where you need to be to run a healthy business. But we won't be jumping there in one go.

I'd say you need a proper scaling strategy, not just random tweaks...

Right, now that we've established the importance of having a proper, profit-driven target, let's talk about how to get there and how to increase your budget without causing chaos. Your instinct to be cautious is spot on. Large, abrupt changes are the enemy of automated bidding strategies. You've spent money and time to get the campaign out of the initial learning phase; the last thing we want to do is throw it right back in by making it feel like it's starting from scratch.

The algorithm has built a predictive model based on your current budget and target. It has an idea of which users are likely to convert and what a conversion from them is worth. When you suddenly double the budget or triple the tROAS target, you're essentially telling it, "that model you built is now useless, please figure it all out again." This forces a new, and often costly, learning period where performance can be erratic and unpredictable. It's why people often see a big drop in performance after a large budget increase and panic.

The solution is a methodical and patient approach. I call it the 'Incremental Scaling Rule'. It applies to both budget and tROAS target adjustments.

The Rule: Never increase your budget or tROAS target by more than 20% at a time, and wait at least 3-5 days before making another change.

Why 20%? It's a small enough change that it doesn't shock the system. It allows the algorithm to adjust its bidding model gradually, expanding its reach or refining its targeting without invalidating all its previous data. It can test the waters in new auctions without having to relearn everything from zero.

Why 3-5 days? This gives the system enough time to gather new data at the new level, stabilise, and for you to get a clear picture of the impact. Remember that conversion data can be delayed (people don't always buy the moment they click), so looking at performance after just one day is misleading. You need a few days of data to see the real trend.

A Practical Scaling Plan for You:

1. Set Your New, Profitable tROAS Target: Use the calculator and your business numbers to decide on a realistic but profitable target. Let's say your break-even is 170% and you decide your initial goal is 350%.
2. Increase tROAS Incrementally: Your current target is 100%. Don't jump to 350%. Your first move should be to increase it by 20% to 120%. Let it run for 3-5 days. Watch the performance. Is it stable? Is it hitting the new target? If yes, great. Now, increase it another 20% to 144%. Repeat this process, stair-stepping your way up towards your ultimate 350% goal. This might take a few weeks, but it will be a much more stable and predictable journey than one massive leap.
3. Increase Budget Incrementally: Once your tROAS is stable at a profitable level, you can start scaling the budget. Your current budget is £35/day. Let's say you want to get to £100/day. Don't just change the number to £100. First, increase it by 20% to £42/day. Let it run for 3-5 days. Is the ROAS holding steady? If so, increase it another 20% to roughly £50/day. Continue this process until you reach your desired spend or until you see the ROAS start to decline significantly, which tells you you're reaching the limit of the current market at that target.

I've mapped out this decision-making process in a simple flowchart below. This is the kind of methodical system we implement for clients. It takes the guesswork and emotion out of scaling and turns it into a repeatable process. One campaign we worked on for a cleaning products company comes to mind; we took them to a 633% return and increased their revenue by 190% over time, all by avoiding knee-jerk reactions and sticking to a disciplined scaling plan.

You probably should understand the 'lumpiness' of tROAS...

Now, let's talk about the "lumpy" results you're seeing – a massive 2,857% ROAS one day and a disappointing 150% the next. This is your biggest concern, and it's completely understandable to want stability. However, with automated bidding, this kind of daily fluctuation is not only normal, it's actually a sign that the system is working as intended.

Here's what's happening behind the scenes. The tROAS algorithm isn't trying to hit your target every single day. It's trying to hit your target *on average* over a period of time (usually the conversion window you've set). On any given day, the algorithm is making thousands of real-time bidding decisions. On a Tuesday, it might identify a group of high-intent users and bid very aggressively to win those auctions, knowing they're highly likely to convert. This might drive up your spend for the day, but result in a huge revenue spike, giving you that 3000% ROAS. On a Wednesday, the available audience might be lower intent. The algorithm knows this, so it holds back, bids more conservatively, and saves budget. The result is lower spend and lower revenue, giving you the 150% ROAS.

It's essentially having its own internal good days and bad days to smooth things out over the long run. If you react to the 150% day by panicking and slashing the target, you're punishing the algorithm for making a smart, long-term decision. You're teaching it to be less aggressive on the good days because you're scared of the quiet days that follow.

The solution is to change your analysis window. Stop looking at daily performance. It's a recipe for anxiety and bad decision-making. Instead, you should be looking at performance in rolling windows:

• 7-Day Rolling Average: This smooths out the daily peaks and troughs and gives you a much better sense of the campaign's actual performance.
• 14-Day Rolling Average: Even better. This gives the algorithm plenty of time to balance its bidding and gives you a very stable performance metric to base your scaling decisions on.

Look at the chart below. I've visualised what this looks like. The daily performance (the blue bars) is all over the place, just like you described. It would be impossible to make a sensible decision based on that noise. But when you look at the 7-day average ROAS (the orange line), a clear, stable trend emerges. This is the number you should be watching. If that orange line is consistently above your Profit ROAS target, your campaign is healthy, regardless of what happened yesterday.

You'll need to feed the machine good data...

Finally, it's important to remember that a tROAS campaign is an algorithm. And like any algorithm, its output is only as good as the input it receives. You can have the perfect scaling strategy and the perfect target, but if you're feeding it poor-quality data, you'll always struggle to get consistent, profitable results. This is an area where a bit of expert review can make a huge diference.

For a Google Shopping campaign, there are two primary data inputs you need to get right:

1. Conversion Tracking Data: This is the most important one. The algorithm relies entirely on the conversion data you send it to learn who your customers are and what they're worth. You need to ensure your tracking is flawless. Are you accurately capturing the revenue value for every single transaction? Are you using Enhanced Conversions to provide Google with more matched data? Is your conversion tag firing correctly on your confirmation page? Any errors here will directly lead to poor bidding decisions. If the algorithm thinks a sale was worth £50 when it was actually £150, it will underbid for similar customers in the future. We've seen campaigns completely transformed just by fixing a broken conversion tracking setup.
2. Product Feed Data: This is your secret weapon in Google Shopping. The product feed is what Google uses to understand what you're selling and who to show it to. A poorly optimised feed is like trying to sell with a blurry photo and a one-word description. You should be constantly optimising your feed with:
   • Descriptive Titles: Don't just put "Blue T-Shirt". Use "Men's Navy Blue Cotton Crewneck T-Shirt - Size Large". Include brand, colour, material, size – anything a user might search for.
   • High-Quality Images: Use multiple, clear, well-lit images that show the product from different angles. For apparel, show it on a model. I remember one client, a women's apparel brand, where improving their product imagery was a key part of getting them to a 691% return on ad spend. People buy with their eyes first.
   • Complete Attributes: Fill out as many of the optional attributes in your Merchant Center feed as possible (GTINs, MPNs, size, colour, etc.). The more data you give Google, the better it can match your products to relevant searches, leading to higher quality traffic and better ROAS.

Optimising these inputs is an ongoing process. It's not a set-it-and-forget-it task. By consistently improving the data you provide, you empower the tROAS algorithm to make smarter decisions, which leads to more stability, better performance, and ultimately, more profitable scaling.

I've put my main recommendations for you into a table below to give you a clear, actionable plan to follow as you start to scale your campaign.

I know this is a lot to take in, but hopefully, it gives you a much clearer framework for how to think about and manage your campaign going forward. Moving from simply running ads to strategically managing a profitable growth engine requires a shift in mindset and a disciplined process.

While the principles I've outlined are the foundation, applying them effectively, diagnosing when things go wrong, and layering on more advanced strategies around campaign structure, audience signals, and feed management is where things can get complex. It's often where having an expert partner to guide the process, interpret the data, and make the right adjustments can make a significant difference, especially when you're ready to scale your spend more aggressively.

If you'd like to go through your account setup in more detail and build a specific, tailored scaling plan for your business, we offer a completely free, no-obligation initial consultation. We can have a look together and identify the biggest opportunities for you. Feel free to book a time that works for you.

Regards,

Team @ Lukas Holschuh